After reading Roger Hardy's articles on Islam in Southeast Asia, I was very interested to see that Hugh Hewitt linked to Dire Straits a 2003 article by Austin Bay and a follow up post on Belmont Club about terrorism in Southeast Asia.
In my post Pirates Have Disappeared and so will Dayton, I wrote, "due to outside pressure from those concerned about the potential of terrorists attacks in the shipping lanes (that pressure source would be us), Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore created "joint patrols to curb [the] rampant piracy," but the pirates have left at least the Indonesian navy in the dust (or should I say spray)." Now Austin Bay, an author, Colonel in the Army Reserve, and professor, begins his article with a look at what a terrorist attack in the shipping lanes could look like.
THE BUMBOAT FERRY from Changi Point to Pulau Ubin may be as close as modern Singapore gets to Joseph Conrad's tropic island of trade and empire. Instead of coconut copra the boat's smell is diesel, but the engine chugs at a steam-driven rhythm and the deckhouse is open to the humid air and high noon of the equatorial sun.
Just 60 miles above the Equator--astride the main sea lane between the Indian and Pacific Oceans--Singapore's location is still its raison d'etre. Prime property for 19th-century commerce remains key economic and geostrategic real estate in the 21st. In the 19th century tin and tea and British troops were high-priority shipments. Today supertankers nose through the Strait of Malacca, connecting Middle Eastern oil fields to Asia's economic tigers. Merchant freighters move in both directions, as do warships.
All of which makes the ferry ride more than a tourist jaunt. Pulau Ubin and a handful of other jungle-green islets sit in the Johor Strait, the heavily trafficked northern waterway separating Singapore from Malaysia. East of Pulau Ubin, one shipping channel swings south from Johor, cutting well to starboard of the bumboat's route. That channel leads to Singapore's Changi Naval Base, where U.S. Navy aircraft carriers berth occasionally and capital ships stop as they shuttle to and from patrol stations.
Know the terrain, the technology, and the terrorists, and you don't need a Hollywood imagination to peg the channel as a perfect site for an ambush. Given ships in transit and the size of the kill zone, it would require speed, so a dinghy, like the one al Qaeda used on the docked USS Cole in Aden, won't cut it. Iran has used pesky Boghammers to harass ships in the Persian Gulf--one of those Swedish speedboats might w o r k as would a drug runner's Cigarette. The fast boat, packed with explosives and a suicide pilot, could slip from an inlet on the Malaysian side, gun its engine, whirl around an islet, perhaps Pulau Tekong, seeking the slate gray side of a carrier. It won't be a straight shot, though. There'll be tugs, armed escorts--
The US military officer at CENTCOM who first discussed the above scenario with Austin Bay in 2001 said,
"Singapore's a logical choice for a 'super Cole' operation, or something similar. The Straits of Malacca are a chokepoint. The U.S. has log[istics] support on Singapore, to an extent replacing what we lost when we moved out of Subic [Bay, Philippines]. It's a nice place, First World in the Third World. Even if it wasn't a U.S. ally, Islamists don't like the island. It's Chinese--that's what the radicals say. They don't like it. Not because it isn't Muslim, but because it's a wealthy Chinese island dumped between two predominantly Muslim nations, Malaysia and Indonesia."
[Side note: They hate Singapore because the people are Chinese. Now isn't that amazing. Here I thought that as soon as the world could enlighten us stupid white men and women by freeing us from our prejudices and dipping into our savings accounts to cover reparations racial reconciliation would be acheived and hate crimes would cease to occur. I will never understand why talk of prejudice and racial reconciliation is almost always discussed in black and white terms as though only whites have this prejudice gene and blacks are the sole victims. Blacks were selling each other into slavery long before the white traders ever showed up on the coast of Africa. What about the Hutus and Tutsis? The Germans and Jews? The Japanese and Indonesians? The Indonesians and Chinese? The Arabs and Jews? The Turks and the Kurds. We could go on all night connecting the dots and our picture of the world would be obscured by all the black lines because prejudice is not a white problem it is a human problem, a human problem that all the money in the world cannot fix. There's a racial reconciliation conference coming up in Minneapolis at the church across from where I work. I was looking at the brochure on Friday, and one of the sessions is on whether or not reconciliation can occur apart from reparations. Why would you even have to ask that question? Has money ever truly bought forgiveness and affection and l o v e? Our country, our world will not be better off with the illusion of l o v e if reparations can even buy that. End of rant. Back to topic at hand.]
You have to wonder what is going through the mind of the captains of the vessels whether they are in control of a hugh air craft carrier, a smelly oil tanker, or regular merchant freighter as they pass through the Straits of Malacca.
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the US are not being cautious over a far out possibility. As Austin Bay notes there has been more than idle chatter among the terrorists about a sea attack and
Singapore Home Affairs Ministry released a white paper confirming JI's (Jemaah Islamiyah, al Qaeda's branch operation in Southeast Asia, headed by radical Indonesian cleric Abu Bakar Bashir) plans for a sea attack. According to the report, markings on a topographical map ISD (Singapore's Internal Security Department) acquired "identified a strategic kill zone where the channel was narrowest and where the naval ships would have no room to avoid a collision with a suicide vessel."
Considering that the tsunami has stopped the pirates for a time, I wonder what effect if any it has had on the terrorists plans for a sea attack?
The problem though is bigger than the terrorists plans for a sea attack. The Islamic radicals don't just want to make a statement; they want to land, lots of land.
But evidence gathered by Singapore's ISD over the past five years also makes Chang's point: Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia lie first and foremost in JI's geo-strategic kill zone. JI has large plans for the whole of Southeast Asia, plans dating from well before 9/11. Drawing on cadres schooled in past radical political movements that used Islam as both a wedge issue and a rallying cause, JI seeks to establish a grand "Islamic state" stretching from southern Thailand through Malaysia, the Philippine and Indonesian archipelagoes, and Australia. Indeed, JI produced a "green map" where the reach of sharia, as interpreted by JI leadership, extends into the Australian continent and New Guinea. Fanciful? Megalomaniacal? After 9/11 only the willfully blind can dismiss the motivating power of such an imperial eschatology.
Chang shows me a copy of JI's dreamland, pulling the map from his brown notebook and placing it on the counter. It's our second meeting. Chang orders a latte as I study the map. Borneo, Java, Thailand's Krak peninsula, the whole of the Philippines, western and northern Australia shaded in this photocopy.
"They believe it," he says.
And belief, in that crowd, becomes bombs. Or, rather, it becomes dreams of bombing campaigns.
Scary! What will it take to open the eyes of the "willfully blind"? The phrase I believe Hugh Hewitt stole to describe conservatives' feelings about John Kerry seems to apply to all ostriches - "I don't like you because you're gonna get me killed!"
Perspective from Singapore:
"JI chooses [terror operations] in Singapore for the demonstrative effect," says K. Kesavapany, director of Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. "We in Singapore have our guard up, so if al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah could get it done here, a terror strike, they can get it done anywhere in the region. That is the message."
Perspective from Malaysia:
"Jemaah Islamiyah in Malaysia. They are clever, yes. They have an education program. But their secret is no secret. It's money. Arab money. Saudi Arab money."
"Can you prove that?"
"Where else but oil does it come from?" he says. "I know what I am told. With that money they promote the Arabization of our Islam in Southeast Asia. Object and you face personal violence."
Arabization is a highly nuanced term, one used repeatedly among Malaysian and Indonesian Muslims I talk to. The general drift is that it represents a movement toward an aggressive anti-Western, anti-secular, and racially tinged Islam in Southeast Asia, the racial tinge being anti-Chinese.
The short version of JI's "education program" is that terrorist cash muscles out public and moderate Muslim educators in Malaysian villages. Undermining the schools "preys on a [strategic] weakness in Malaysia," the scholar says. "Their object is to undermine moderate Muslims."
Perspective on Indonesia:
"What kind of counterterror cooperation exists with Indonesia since Bali?" I ask Chang, when I see him again.
"Since Bali the Indonesian police have been able to act more readily. Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore--the police cooperate closely."
"But until the Bali mess, the Indonesian government was publicly denying the threat of radical Islamists in Indonesia?" I prod.
Chang doesn't reply.
It is easy to isolate in one's mind the war on terrorism to the Middle East or Afghanistan where we see our troops on the ground. Then reality like the Bali bombing intrudes reminding us that this is a worldwide war.
Frank Lavin, U.S. ambassador to Singapore, is an energetic and erudite man. "This is a war with many fronts and requires intense cooperation," he says. "Southeast Asia is a major theater of this war, no doubt about that. Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim nation. Jemaah Islamiyah's transnational character demonstrates the need to cooperate. Singapore's done a superb job, as good as the U.S. But we know there could still be an incident."
Just like there could be another incident here in the US.
Bay ends his article by describing his visit to the American embassy in Singapore.
I...then head down the sidewalk to the street, a stretch of concrete that's as much a front line in this strange world war as Wall Street, or the Pentagon, or a minefield in southern Iraq.
And that, unfortunately, is reality.
Read the whole article. I'm going to look at the Belmont post next.